Vision 2020: 'India's Decade of Glory'

While the decade gone by transformed India from a sleeping economy to a vibrant economy, the world has taken note of, the decade just started is destined to be 'India's decade of glory', that promises to fulfil the 'Vision 2020'. There are some very strong indicators that are pointing towards India's march towards becoming the fastest growing economy that will dominate the world by 2020:

• With a younger work force, that is technically more qualified, India has the potential of supporting a sustainable GDP growth of around 10%, India can overtake China as the fastest growing economy during the current decade, as China is likely to be faced with an aeging work force and the spectre of being faced with the compulsion of letting its currency appreciate steadily against the dollar, that will lead to a slowdown in its GDP growth rate over the decade.

• The political clout of India is going to increase in the world, as its economic prowess spreads. India is most likely to join the elite club of permanent members of the UN Security Council. Its quest for altrnative sources of enegy is likely to make India more or less self sufficient in meeting the growing energy demand during the current decade. The astronomical rise in price of crude oil will make it compulsory for nations to search for alternate energy resources, and India is poised to lead this revolution by promoting the use of Solar, Wind, Hydel and Nuclear energy.

• The democratic institutions in the world's largest democracy will flourish in the new decade. There may be initial hiccups in the domestic political landscape as the demand for smaller states gathers momentum, but the smaller states may be administratively easier to control in the long run. By 2020 India may adopt the US kind of federal set up with over 40 states. The technological advancement in administrative set-up in the aftermath of the implementation of the unique citizen ID project will aid in smooth administation of the country. The 2- party system at the centre of the federal structure is likely to provide a stable political environment in the country by 2020.

• India has the potential to become the most sought after Business as well as Tourist destination in the sub-continent, overtaking the likes of Singapore, Malaysia by 2020. Themes like Eco tourism, Education tourism, Health and Medical tourism will lay the foundation of India becoming a major tourist hub by 2020. Infrastructure development supported by a highly sophisticated and efficient transportation system will help India achieve this status.

However, India needs to guard against terrorist attacks from across the border, and the insurgency from within. Our foreign policy needs to be revamped to give an impression to the world that we are not a soft state. Similarly our security forces will have to be equipped with modern gadgets to thwart any attempt to disturb the peace of our country.

Our markets will also reflect the mood of a resurgent economy, but there will be some sectors and some asset classes which are likely to outperform the broader markets. I propose to cover the market scenario for the coming decade, in my next post. Wishing all of you 'Happy Investing' in the new decade.