Hopes are running high as US votes to elect its 45th President. Mitt Romney of the Republican Party would be the 45th President of US if he wins the November 6th electoral battle. Barack Obama seeking 2nd term as a Democratic party candidate is on a shaky wicket on the eve of the elections, despite a strong last ditch effort by former President Bill Clinton in his favour. Obama has also tried his level best to turn the tide in his favour by the sympathetic handling of the situation arising out of 'hurricane Sandy'.
What are the implications of this electoral battle for India? Barack Obama inherited a weak US economy from his predecessor George Bush, but has not been able to bring back the US economy to its past glory. Unemployment and jobless claims have risen to new highs under Obama administration, even as the economy grows at a paltry 2.3% p.a. Obama the Lawyer-politician faces a stiff test from Romney the Businessman-politician. 1947 born Romney is much older than 1961 born Obama. Will the US public choose a more experienced man over the youthful Obama?
Obama's policy towards India has been a mixed bag. In rhetoric he has defended India against its rivals China and Pakistan, but has done precious little to re-enforce his stand. His policy of appeasement towards Pakistan has left India high and dry. He has often supported China at the cost of long term US interests, for short term gains for US treasury. Mitt Romney is far more outspoken about his views on China, it remains to be seen how he behaves towards China if elected. Obama who has had a restrictive Visa regime for Indians, has been an obstacle in India's entry into certain areas in the US economy. Mitt Romney has taken a liberal view on Visa for Indian nationals.
Although it is going to be a photo finish I shall put my money on Romney, because he could be a better option from India's perspective. A victory for Romney could provide the US economy a much needed booster with an immediate uptick in the stock indices. Indian markets would also greet a victory for Romney. The commodity markets which have been depressed for sometime could see a strong upsurge. We could see Gold and Silver prices attain new highs by year end. However, the price impact in India would be marginal as we could see the Rupee gaining ground against the US Dollar. I would expect the Indian Rupee to get stronger towards the Rs.50 mark to a dollar in the next 2 months.
No comments:
Post a Comment